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Öğe Do Fiscal Policy Outcomes Promote Ethno-Religious Stability in African States?(Springer, 2024) Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin; Bekun, Festus VictorThis paper studies the conditions under which the use of expansionary fiscal policy may mitigate the risk of initiation, escalation, and repeated cycles of conflict on the African continent. To date, empirical evidence highlighting the effectiveness of expansionary fiscal policy as a means of mitigating conflict in Africa is still limited. This article is an attempt to fill this gap as it addresses this important empirical question in conflict-plagued Africa. The study further expands on previous studies by examining the efficacy of increased government expenditure on conflict in general, as well as on the ethnic and religious dimensions of conflict in Africa. The most encountered forms of conflict in recent times are those that cannot be neatly classified as war, peace, criminal violence or political violence. Ethnic and religious conflicts often fall into this class. This study finds that overall, non-military government expenditures across African states have played a significant role in minimizing general internal conflict, as well as ethnic and religious conflicts. Using data for 32 African nations for the period 1990-2016, the empirical analyses show that raising overall government expenditure can induce reductions in overall internal, ethnic and religious conflicts. The results suggest that total government expenditure has a stronger impact on the reduction of ethnic conflict on the continent. Empirical outcomes also show that causality varies across countries on the continent, an indication that the relationship between conflict and government expenditure is heterogeneous in nature across the continent. The causal effect of government expenditure is however most widespread for ethnic conflict.Öğe Does geopolitics trigger energy inflation in the European economic area? Evidence from a panel time-varying regression(Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2024) Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin; Olanipekun, Ifedolapo; Usman, OjonugwaPurposeThis paper aims to examine the reaction of energy inflation to geopolitical risks in the European Economic Area between 1990 and 2015. Design/methodology/approachThis study applies the nonparametric time-varying coefficient panel data model with fixed effects. In addition, to further reveal potential tail effects that may not have been captured by conditional mean-based regressions, the method of moments quantile regression was also used. FindingsThe findings of this study are as follows: first, as European countries get exposed to geopolitical tensions, it is expected that energy prices will surge. Second, the ability of geopolitical risk to trigger energy inflation in recent times is not as powerful as it used to be. Third, countries with a lower inflation rate, when exposed to geopolitical risks, experience smaller increases in energy inflation compared to countries with a higher inflation rate. Research limitations/implicationsThe findings of this study lead us to the conclusion that transitioning from nonrenewable to renewable energy use is one channel through which the sampled countries can battle the energy inflation, which geopolitical risks trigger. A sound macroeconomic policy for inflation control is a complementary channel through which the same goal can be achieved. Originality/valueGiven the increasing level of energy inflation and geopolitical risks in the world today, this study is an attempt to reveal the time-varying characteristics of the relationship between these variables in European countries using a nonparametric time-varying coefficient panel data model and method of moments quantile regression with fixed effects.Öğe External Financing for Inclusive Growth in Lower - Middle Income West African Countries: Foreign Direct Investment versus Official Development Assistance(ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2-4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXON, ENGLAND, 2023) Ibikunle, Joseph Afolabi; Uzoechina, Benedict I.; Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin; Bekun, Festus VictorMost developing countries are plagued with harsh economic realities, which motivate them to seek sustainable economic growth and development in line with goal eight of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. To this end, this paper investigated the source of external financing that is most helpful for achieving inclusive growth in lower-middle-income West African countries. The study is a panel analysis of annual data extending from 2000 to 2019. The study employed the Emirmahmutoglu and Kose Bootstrap Granger Causality Test, Westerlund Cointegration Test, Common Correlated Mean Group estimation technique, and Augmented Mean Group estimation technique for econometric analyses. The long-run empirical results from the study showed that both foreign direct investment and foreign aid have positive and significant effects on inclusive growth, although the impact of foreign direct investment is greater than that of foreign aid. A bi-directional causality was also found to exist between inclusive growth and foreign direct investment, while no causal relationship was detected between inclusive growth and foreign aid. Given the study’s empirical outcomes, it is recommended that West African countries prioritize macroeconomic policy reforms that provide enabling conditions for foreign direct investment to thrive rather than pursue foreign aid that more often than not are misdirected.Öğe Illicit financial outflows, informal sector size and domestic resource mobilization in selected African countries(EMERALD GROUP PUBLISHING LTD, HOWARD HOUSE, WAGON LANE, BINGLEY BD16 1WA, W YORKSHIRE, ENGLAND, 2021) Uzoechina, Benedict Ikemefuna; Ibikunle, Joseph Afolabi; Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin; Bekun, Festus VictorPurpose –The growth of both the informal sector and illicit financial outflows necessitated this study, in order to investigate how countries in Africa respond to these realities in terms of mobilization of domestic resources. These are the main motivation for the current study to the extant literature in conjunction with the adoption of employing second-generation econometric techniques which take into account cross-sectional dependence and country-specific heterogeneity. Design/methodology/approach – This study therefore examined the capacity of Africa to mobilize domestic resources amidst rising illicit financial outflows and informal sector size in selected African countries between 2000 and 2018. Second-generation econometric techniques such as cross-sectional dependence tests, slope homogeneity tests, Westerlund (2007) long-run co-integration tests, Eberhardt and Teal (2010) augmented mean group estimations and K onya (2006) panel causality testing were employed. Findings – Findings revealed the existence of cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity in the data series. Findings also supported the existence of depressing long-run impacts of IFOs and ISS on domestic savings. Causality test results were not uniform across variables among countries. Policy recommendations favour formalizing the largely informal African economies through budgetary policy adjustments and commitment to building stronger institutions. Practical implications – The fragility of the African countries economy and its macroeconomic indicators is suggestive for more policy construction. Originality/value – This economic reality about the nature of the informal sector is one that has negated the traditional view which holds that economic reforms would make the informal sector shrink as it transits to formal sector. Experiences from Latin America and Africa in fact indicate that the informal sector is actually on an expansionary path in the wake of adjustment and policy reforms. It is often called the unobserved, unorganized or unprotected economy. With this sector growing in size, the possibility of a reverse may not be in sight, owing to the increasing poverty levels and unemployment prevalent in most African countries. Uncertain foreign investment and aid inflows coupled with lower export revenues and high levels of indebtedness have created new impetus to examine the capacity of Africa’s fiscal policy regime to mobilise domestic resources for the development of the region. Surprisingly, the last decade witnessed continued rise in Africa’s illicit financial outflows amidst large informal sector size (ISS).Öğe Institutional transformation as an effective tool for reducing corruption and enhancing economic growth: A panel study of West African countries(WILEY, 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ, 2022) Udemba, Edmund Ntom; Onyenegecha, Ifeoma; Olasehinde-Williams, GodwinWeak institutions and high levels of corruption are issues of great concern in West Africa because of their adverse effects on the economic growth of the region. While a significant portion of extant literature has focused on the determinants of corruption, empirical investigations of the effect of institutional quality on corruption are still limited, especially in Africa. This paper provides empirical evidence, which shows that improvement in the quality of governmental institutions is an effective means of controlling corruption in West Africa. Furthermore, the paper reveals that improvements in terms of the ability of governmental institutions to meet the economic needs of the people make the most impact on the ability to curb corruption in West Africa. Annual panel data series for14 ECOWAS countries on corruption control and governance quality, obtained from the Worldwide Governance Indicators and Ibrahim Index of African Governance online databases, for the period 2000–2015, were utilized in the study.Öğe Interest Rate Volatility and Economic Growth in Nigeria: New Insight from the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) Model(Springer, 2024) Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin; Omotosho, Ruth; Bekun, Festus VictorThis is a study on interest rate volatility, a crucial form of volatility which affects local and foreign investments in the real and financial sectors. Whether to prioritize interest rate stability to prevent distortions in the market mechanism or to prioritize other macroeconomic objectives while allowing interest rates to independently react to market forces is a key question for Nigeria's apex monetary authority. Answering this question is the primary motivation for this research. This paper is an attempt to establish the effect of interest rate volatility on economic growth and further conclude on the suitability of the financial liberalization policy in Nigeria. To reach an evidence-based conclusion, the paper analyzes the relationship between interest rate volatility and economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1981-2020. The QARDL procedure was employed to establish the short-run and long-run quantile-specific impacts of interest rate volatility. As a final step, Granger causality tests are conducted to investigate the predictive powers of the variables. It is discovered from the econometric analysis that interest rate volatility adversely affects the economic performance of Nigeria in both the short run and long run. Consequently, full liberalization is not suitable for the economy. Moreover, we find that the short-run adverse growth effect of interest rate volatility is greater when the economy is already in a relatively weak state, whereas the long-run adverse growth effect is greater when the economy is already in a relatively strong position. The findings sufficiently prove that full interest rate liberalization is not Pareto efficient for Nigeria. Hence, greater supervision of the interest rate corridor system to reduce volatility in the rates and minimize chances of persistent upward or downward bias is advised. Study limitations and directions for further research are also provided.Öğe Pathway to achieving sustainable food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: The role of agricultural mechanization(WILEY, 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA, 2020) Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin; Adedoyin, Festus Fatai; Bekun, Festus VictorAccording to the World Health Organization (2020), many parts of the world have demonstrated potentials for acute hunger and famine. Many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) actively feature in this category due to geopolitical crises and other humanitarian challenges. Despite efforts by SSA governments, agricultural productivity continues to be inadequate in meeting nutritional needs across Africa. Thus, in the presence of economic expansion, vast land, and labor resources, this study investigates the role of mechanization as an important factor for increased agricultural productivity in SSA. Data on 25 SSA countries over 17 years are used. Empirical results from System Generalized Method of Moments show that among other variables, mechanization is a significant factor influencing agricultural productivity. Consequently, in light of the bid for higher agricultural productivity, government investment in mechanization becomes a priority. Also, apart from the fact that many African countries are at the point where more land must be brought under development to satisfy expanded market needs, larger investments in mechanization appear imperative.Öğe The Role of Electricity Consumption, Globalization and Economic Growth in Carbon Dioxide Emissions and its Implications for Environmental Sustainability Targets(ELSEVIER, RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS, 2020) Saint Akadiri, Seyi; Alola, Andrew Adewale; Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin; Etokakpan, Mfonobong UdomIn spite of increased awareness and commitment to climate change, the world is yet to witness a dramatic downturn of pollutant emissions. With the strategic geographical location of Turkey and the country's energy and environmental degradation challenges, this study, therefore, attempts to investigate the linkages among carbon emissions, electricity consumption, economic growth and globalization in Turkey over the period 1970-2014. They posit a more robust interpretation within a multivariate arrangement by employing several econometric techniques such as the Bayer and Hanck (2013) cointegration procedure, the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration, ARDL short-run and long-run estimations, and the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality testing. From our findings, the policy variables relevant to pollution reduction in Turkey are electricity consumption and economic growth, and the common factor to these policy variables is fossil fuel consumption. There is no statistical indication that globalization impacts carbon emissions in Turkey. Our findings have the following important policy implications for Turkey and other countries with high records of carbon emissions; (i) the so-called fossil fuel capitalism needs to be overhauled, and a switch to low carbon, eco-friendly, energy mix content is required, (ii) renewable energy sources should be prioritized, (iii) adoption of electric vehicles not as complements to internal combustion engine vehicles but as substitutes should be encouraged, (iv) levying of environmentally sensitive taxes and subsidies should be intensified, and (v) better participation in the global drive for decarbonization should be encouraged. In summary, we advocate extensive planning and financing, and coordinated action across economic sectors and various stakeholders to achieve a low-carbon energy system.Öğe Stock Market Response to Quantitative Easing: Evidence from the Novel Rolling Windows Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Approach(Springer, 2023) Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin; Olanipekun, Ifedola; Ozkan, OktayThe US Federal Reserve has been using quantitative easing as an unconventional monetary policy tool for providing liquidity and credit-market facilities to banks, and undertaking large-scale asset purchases in periods of crisis. This study carefully examines whether the US stock market has been responsive to the use of quantitative easing over time. A major contribution of this study to the extant literature is the introduction of the novel rolling windows nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach to studying the reaction of the stock market to quantitative easing. This approach provides a means of investigating the time-varying causality between the variables across quantiles. The standard nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test results show that stock market performance is significantly predicted by quantitative easing, except at very low and very high levels of stock returns (volatility). The rolling windows nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test results indicate that the causal effect of quantitative easing on stock market volatility and returns becomes pronounced during periods of crisis. The reactions are most significant in periods corresponding to the Asian financial crisis, the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Overall, the causal effect of quantitative easing on both stock market returns and volatility changes through time; the effect on stock market returns is also greater than on stock market volatility.