Yazar "Balov, Mustafa Nuri" seçeneğine göre listele

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    Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey
    (İstanbul Gelişim Üniversitesi Yayınları / Istanbul Gelisim University Press, 2020) Balov, Mustafa Nuri
    The recent increase in the frequency and intensity of the floods resulted from huge precipitation events in Bursa Province, Turkey, is the main motivation of this study. For this purpose, the daily precipitation values from the historical data recorded between 1971 and 2000 together with the projected data of the NorESM1-M general circulation model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios between 2031 and 2100 were used to calculate eight extreme precipitation events. The Spearman's rho and the Mann-Kendall trend tests were used to detect the trend in the indices. The results of the trend tests showed that any change is not expected in the total amount of the yearly precipitation amount, whereas the occurrence of the intense and short duration precipitation events is expected to be more probable by the end of the current century, compared to the last 30 years of the previous century. The positive significant trends were detected in some indices. However, the magnitude of the change in the climatic parameters and the increase in the number of extreme precipitation events cannot solely explain the increase in the number of destroying flood events in the province. Other parameters such as the dramatic increase in urbanization as a result of rapid population growth during the past years (since 1960) may have a more prominent effect on the increase of the flood risk in the province which is in need of comprehensive modeling and investigation.
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    Meteorological Drought Assessment in Mountainous Regions Based on Outputs of General Circulation Models
    (CRC Press, 2023) Balov, Mustafa Nuri; Vaheddoost, Babak; Safari, Mir Jafar Sadegh
    The availability of water among the different parts of the hydrological cycle has a significant impact on the environment and ecological balance as well as on the food industry and tourism. Drought, which can be considered as the shortage of available water in time and/or space, has become more frequent and intense in recent years. From the ecological point of view, studying the effect of climatic variables on the quantity and quality of flora and fauna needs multidisciplinary comprehensive research and measurements. However, the various impacts of extreme climatic events such as droughts on the economy, health, and welfare of society are highly interconnected with the environmental and ecological considerations of the climate system. © 2024 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
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    Spatio-temporal evaluation of various global circulation models in terms of projection of different meteorological drought indices
    (SPRINGER, ONE NEW YORK PLAZA, SUITE 4600 , NEW YORK, NY 10004, UNITED STATES, 2020) Balov, Mustafa Nuri; Altunkaynak, Abdüsselam
    During the coming years, a dramatic increase is expected in the number of drought events mainly due to climate change. In this study, the spatio-temporal variations of duration and intensity of drought events during two 30-year periods in the future (2040–2069 and 2070–2099) together with the reference period (1971–2000) were investigated based on the impacts of climate change. Three drought indices including the Standardized Precipitation Index, the China Z Index, and the Statistical Z Score were calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data from the outputs of GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2- ES, and MPI-ESM-MR general circulation models (GCMs) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios over the Western Black Sea (WBS) and the Euphrates–Tigris (ET) basins in Turkey. The biases in the GCMs’ precipitation were corrected using the linear scaling method. Additionally, the Mann–Kendall trend test was adapted to the values of drought indices to detect the trend. The results of the study showed that there is no meaningful variation between the diferent drought indices and also the outputs of various GCMs in terms of drought properties. On the other hand, based on the drought indices values calculated from the outputs of all GCMs, it was found that drought duration and intensity will increase during the current century. Additionally, it was concluded that by taking the spatial distribution of drought properties over the basins into the account, there is a slight relationship between the geographical elevation and drought properties over the WBS and the ET basins.